Expert views
Commentary submitted by Chris Cheverall in their own words.
Back to profileBank deputy says rate rise ‘increasingly likely’ if energy prices stay high
The important point for markets is that a rate rise driven by higher energy prices would look very different from one driven by stronger domestic demand.
UK business activity slows to three-month low amid Iran war inflation pressure
Businesses are being squeezed from both directions: growth is slowing while costs are still rising.
UK business activity slows to three-month low amid Iran war inflation pressure
Today’s PMI is uncomfortable because businesses are being squeezed from both directions: growth is slowing while costs are still rising.
Government borrowing hits second-highest August on record in setback for Healey
The headline borrowing figure matters, but for markets the bigger issue is what it means for the cost of financing that debt.
Interest rates held at 3.75% but Bank warns Iran war could mean future hike
The decision to hold rates at 3.75 per cent should not be mistaken for an all-clear on inflation. The 6–3 vote shows there remains a meaningful divide within the MPC, with pressure for tighter policy still firmly on the table.
Interest rates held at 3.75% but Bank warns Iran war could mean future hike
The decision to hold rates at 3.75 per cent should not be mistaken for an all-clear on inflation. The 6–3 vote shows there remains a meaningful divide within the MPC, with pressure for tighter policy still firmly on the table.
Oil prices surpass 100 dollars a barrel after US strikes on Iranian tankers
The conflict has now been disrupting energy markets for more than six months, and every fresh escalation makes it harder for investors to keep treating the inflation impact as temporary.
Oil prices surpass 100 dollars a barrel after US strikes on Iranian tankers
The conflict has now been disrupting energy markets for more than six months, and every fresh escalation makes it harder for investors to keep treating the inflation impact as temporary.
Surging energy prices push inflation up to highest level since March
The Bank can look through an energy shock for a period. However, the problem is if those higher costs start feeding into wages, business pricing and services inflation, because that is when a temporary shock becomes a more persistent one.
Surging energy prices push inflation up to highest level since March
Inflation rising to 2.9 per cent clearly signals movement in the wrong direction, but the detail is slightly more nuanced. With core inflation unchanged, the pressures are still coming from energy rather than a broader pick-up in domestic prices.
Sluggish UK jobs picture as Middle East fracture sends crude and borrowing costs higher
What’s striking is that a weaker labour market would normally give the Bank of England more room to think about lower rates. But that isn’t the story markets are trading at the moment. Energy prices are higher, gilt yields are up and financial conditions are tightening anyway.
Middle East and rising oil prices are running the show in the rates markets
The market may be too quick to assume that a political resolution would also be a rates resolution. A deal with Iran could quickly remove some of the geopolitical risk premium, but that doesn’t mean the inflationary pressure disappear at the same speed.