Retail sales dip amid wet weather and weaker supermarket trading

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: “Rain stopped play for retailers hoping for a winning session in February.

“UK retail sales went from a two per cent rise in January to a 0.4 per cent decline the following month.

“There’s nothing worse than miserable weather for the retail sector as consumers want to stay dry inside and not get soaked as soon as they step outdoors.

“Rain effectively washes away the chances of consumers going to the shops for browsing and making casual purchases, stripping sales back to just essential items.

“February’s poor showing might have also been the result of a strong January where shoppers picked up bargains and felt they’d had enough retail therapy for a while.

“Despite the gloomy showing for February, the retail sales data wasn’t a total disaster.

“First, the February result was less bad than the market consensus forecast of a 0.7 per cent decline.

“Second, there was still growth on a three-month basis to February, rising 0.7 per cent thanks to an improvement in activity for online retailers after a weak November, and strong artwork sales volumes at the start of 2026.

“Retailers will have to take the three-month figures as a win, as life could get a lot worse from here.

“The Middle East crisis has the potential to inflict an inflation shock thanks to the spike in oil and gas prices and there are early signs that consumer confidence has sunk again.

“The Bank of England might have to raise interest rates to fight inflation, making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money and service debt.

“Higher energy prices make it more expensive to fill up the car with fuel or boil the kettle for a cup of tea, and they could feed into higher costs for food, drink and clothing.

“Households might feel no choice but to watch their spending more closely and that is terrible news for retailers.”