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Commentary submitted by Dan Coatsworth in their own words.

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Taylor Wimpey cautions over another earnings drop in 2026 in tough market

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: “The dampening effect of last year’s Budget on the housing market and the uncertain outlook for interest rates have shaken the foundations of UK housebuilders in recent months.

“In this context Taylor Wimpey’s latest numbers felt reassuring.

“Yes, profits for 2025 may have plunged on a statutory basis, but this reflected one-off items including cladding fire safety provisions.

“More important to the market was Taylor Wimpey’s ability to hit previous guidance on completions and earnings.

“The outlook wasn’t anything to cheer the heart, but investors will hope there is a measure of conservatism baked into it.

“Like others in the sector, Taylor Wimpey is at the mercy of soggy property prices at a time when build costs are creeping higher.

“Recent events in the Middle East have raised the prospect of stickier inflation and rates staying higher – potentially bad news for mortgage affordability and demand for new homes.

“Taylor Wimpey and its peers are unlikely to get any help from the market environment so they must roll their sleeves up and build some resilience into their business models to withstand what could be a testing period.”

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