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Commentary submitted by Aarin Chiekrie in their own words.

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Taylor Wimpey cautions over another earnings drop in 2026 in tough market

Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Taylor Wimpey built momentum in 2025, with most key figures heading in the right direction.

“Revenue was up 13 per cent to £3.8billion, thanks to a healthy mix of completion growth and higher average selling prices.

“There was a bit of a pullback in the second half, as many buyers chose to hold off from signing on the dotted line for a new home ahead of the later-than-usual UK Budget, in hopes of more favourable tax changes.

“With that cloud of uncertainty now out of the way, focus returns to buyer demand and affordability, and the spring selling season has started well.

“The balance sheet remains in a great place. Its significant land bank leaves it well placed to react if demand picks up.

“The shareholder returns policy has been tweaked for the better.

“Total payouts will remain unchanged, but they’ve been rebalanced from all dividends to potentially include a portion of share buybacks and to take advantage of the current valuation weakness.

“Despite the recent momentum, the outlook for the whole of 2026 is where Taylor Wimpey left investors wanting more.

“Progress is expected to slow this year due to a downward trend in selling prices on the order book and continued low single-digit cost inflation.

“That means margins are now expected to narrow, and as a result, underlying operating profits are expected to fall from £421million to around £400million in 2026.

“While that’s not what investors were hoping for, the bigger picture needs to be kept in mind.

“The long-term demand outlook remains favourable, and Taylor Wimpey’s valuation could offer some upside to patient investors.”

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