Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “It was hard for Vistry to disappoint markets more than it did in 2024, when it issued three profit warnings in as many months.
“Vistry’s 2025 full-year results weren’t the finished product, but investors will take slight comfort knowing it was a step in the right direction.
“Its partners remained cautious over the first half of 2025.
“Partner-funded demand strengthened slightly in the second half, supported by a more favourable government policy environment for affordable housing, where Vistry specialises.
“All in, that saw revenue remain flat year-on-year, as a slowdown in house sales was offset by a small uptick in selling prices and £200m worth of land sales.
“With the top line stuck in the mud, Vistry leaned into its enormous scale to negotiate hard on prices with suppliers, which has helped profits return to growth territory.
“While Vistry is better-positioned than most to benefit from the government’s pledge to invest an unprecedented £39b in affordable housing over the next decade, it’s likely to be a slow-burning opportunity rather than a quick win.
“The group’s partnerships model also tends to have a lower margin than ordinary housebuilding projects.
“While selling these houses in bulk deals to partners brings more cash in the door in one go, it puts downward pressure on selling prices, meaning there’s little room for error.
“The balance sheet isn’t in the best of shape, so dividend payments and share buybacks aren’t a priority for now.
“Potential investors will need a lot of patience if they want to back this horse, and there looks to be better ways to play the UK housing market as things stand.”
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