Aneisha Beveridge, research director at Hamptons and Connells Group, said: “While the ONS is still reporting 2.4 per cent annual house price growth in November, that headline number masks the cooling we saw through much of 2025.
“The withdrawal of stamp duty concessions early in the year and a fairly subdued economic backdrop took some of the momentum out of the market, even though affordability technically improved.
“And because the ONS reflects completions, November’s rise is really a snapshot of the summer, when mortgage rates first began to edge lower.
“The slowdown has been most evident in the least affordable parts of the country.
“London has now recorded four months of annual price falls, led by sharper declines in Prime Central London, where higher stamp duty and uncertainty about the future tax landscape ahead of the Budget weighed heavily.
“Prime areas outside the capital that saw strong growth post-Covid, have also softened. Average prices in the Cotswold District, for instance, are down 5.7 per cent year on year.
“Meanwhile, more affordable parts of the Midlands and North continue to see the strongest rates of growth.
“Looking ahead, we expect the ONS House Price Index to show further moderation over the coming months as sales agreed in the autumn and early winter flow through to completions into early 2026.
“But the recent fall in mortgage rates should provide a firmer footing, helping boost activity as we head into 2026.
“On the ground, we’re already seeing signs of a slightly stronger market, with whispers of homes that had sat on the market for a while now going under offer and more buyers stepping forward to take advantage of lower rates and line up a move before spring.”
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