Aneisha Beveridge, research director at Hamptons and Connells Group, said: “Falling mortgage rates around the turn of the year helped bring a degree of stability back to the housing market.
“For much of the last six months, the mortgage market has felt calmer, giving buyers and sellers a clearer view of what they can afford and encouraging more people to move.
“However, the latest global developments risk putting that stabilisation on pause, with markets already reacting to heightened geopolitical tensions.
“2026 is also set to be a bumper year for refinancing.
“UK Finance estimates that around 1.8 million households will come to the end of their fixed-rate deals, so shifts in swap rates and changes in lender pricing feed through to a larger group of borrowers than usual.
“So far, the impact on households has been limited.
“But the longer global tensions persist, the greater the risk that rising inflationary pressures could influence expectations for interest rates – and therefore the cost of borrowing.
“For many homeowners rolling off two-year fixes, monthly repayments are still likely to fall.
“But those coming to the end of cheap five-year deals will face higher costs than they’ve been used to, meaning even small movements in rates matter.
“A period of relative stability has supported confidence in the housing market so far this year, but events over the last week are yet another reminder of how quickly things can change.
“The path of rates over the coming months will depend heavily on how global events evolve and how those pressures filter through to UK inflation and financial markets.”
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