# Fresh uncertainty over US-Iran war sends oil price back up

By Derren Nathan — 2026-04-20

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Brent Crude prices have climbed five per cent to over $95 per barrel just days after they fell by about $12 to $85 on Friday on hopes of the resumption of energy cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Further downstream, the crisis is starting to have tangible effects, with several airlines cutting back on less profitable routes and the International Energy Agency warning that European jet fuel supplies could run out by early June.

“Over time, the energy supply chain is likely to pivot and become less dependent on the Strait, but so far, only around 20 per cent of oil traffic has been diverted, and there is no instant fix.

“There are some big names in Aviation reporting this week, and some cautious guidance is to be expected.

“US carriers United and American Airlines report on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

“The effect of short-term oil price fluctuations is likely to be less pronounced higher up the chain, but a prolonged hit to airline profitability could, in time, feed through to demand for aircraft and engines from the likes of Boeing and GE Aerospace, who are also set to report this week.

“Interest rate expectations continue to bounce around, hanging on every twist and turn in the Gulf.

“But Kevin Warsh’s testimony to the US Senate tomorrow could provide a longer-term steer on the direction of American monetary policy as the Fed chair frontrunner sets out his credentials for the role.

“Central bank independence and the potential for structurally lower rates as AI productivity gains start to bite are likely to be key points of focus.

“There are several big economic data points to keep an eye on, too, as markets weigh up the impact of the conflict on inflation and demand.

“US retail sales in March are expected to show further resilience tomorrow with a forecasted 1.3 per cent increase.

“On Wednesday, expectations for UK CPI data have been moving up since the conflict broke out, and March price increases are now expected to be nudging 3.5 per cent.

“Anything higher is likely to be negative for sentiment towards UK equities, but we still think domestic rates will remain on hold while the conflict continues.

“Attention then shifts to PMI Thursday, with headline numbers for the US, the Eurozone, and the UK providing a more forward-looking snapshot of the global economy.”

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