# FTSE holds over 10,000 as oil resumes its climb above $100

By Derren Nathan — 2026-03-26

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “After two days of gains, the FTSE 100 has given back a little this morning as investors seek out concrete signs of progress towards a peace deal between Washington and Iran and the resumption of oil and gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

“So far, the main communication channels appear to be traditional and social media, as well as third-party states.

“It may take a formal agreement or at least a move to the negotiating table to steady markets further.

“While the bears may have the edge this morning, there could be bulls waiting in the wings if moves towards a resolution gather pace.

“Gold has fallen back below $4,500 per ounce, around $1,000 lower than the peaks seen at the end of January.

“Interest rate expectations, rather than safe-haven appeal, have been in the driving seat.

“The inflationary impact of the oil market dislocation has increased the probability of a Fed rate hold until at least October from around 11 per cent to 62 per cent over the last month.

“Markets now see a 38 per cent chance of at least a quarter-point rise, and when it comes to the possibility of a cut, all bets are off.

“Things could change quickly if Middle Eastern tensions simmer down, but the longer oil routes remain blocked, the more embedded hawkish forecasts will become.

“US stock futures are also trading down this morning after yesterday’s broad-based gains.

“Outside of the geopolitical stage, weekly jobless figures will be a key datapoint for today, with new benefit claimants expected to rise slightly from last week’s 205k to 211k, still relatively low by historical standards.

“In recent times, weaker-than-expected labour market numbers have been seen as potential catalysts for rate cuts and greeted favourably by stock markets.

“However, in the current climate, signs that higher fuel prices and the fear factor are dragging on economic activity could be a negative for equities.

“Speeches by Fed Vice Chair Barr and Governors Cook and Jefferson are also lined up for today, giving further clues around the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.

“Brent Crude is pushing on $105 this morning after bottoming out at nearly $97 in yesterday’s session as traders try and second guess the path of the Iran War.

“Turning to natural gas, US gas storage figures are expected to show a 49 billion cubic feet (Bcf) increase after unseasonably mild weather saw stockpiles rise by 35 Bcf in the world’s largest producer and exporter of natural gas.

“US natural gas prices are down 6.5 per cent year to date in contrast to a 90 per cent rise in the European Union, reflecting the trading bloc’s reliance on imports.”

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