# People receiving full new state pension on course for £12,548 from April

By Rachel Vahey — 2025-10-22

Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, said: “The state pension should rise by an inflation-busting 4.8 per cent from next April in line with July’s earnings growth figure, with September’s CPI inflation figure confirmed at 3.8 per cent.

“While pensioners will be in a mood to celebrate, this sizeable uplift to the state pension is likely to engorge projections of future government spending and presents a dilemma for the Treasury.

“Under the triple lock guarantee, the state pension rises annually by the highest of average earnings growth in May to July, September’s inflation figure or 2.5 per cent.

“With earnings growth for the three months to July coming in at 4.8 per cent, the state pension should increase to around £12,548 from April 2026 – putting it above £12,000 for the first time and within inches of the frozen personal allowance.

“The amount of money government spends on the state pension is already set to soar over the next few years, and the sustainability of the triple lock may once again come under scrutiny as a result of this latest bumper increase.

“If, as is expected short of a policy intervention, the triple lock sees the state pension increase above the personal allowance of £12,570 in April 2027, then the government will come under increasing pressure to either unfreeze the personal allowance or consider whether it can stand behind its promise to uphold the triple lock for the rest of this Parliament.

“Removing the freeze on the personal allowance would come at significant cost to the Treasury at a time when the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom is already strained at best, while an overhaul of the triple lock would come with huge political risk before the next general election.

“Needless to say, it’s a headache Starmer and Reeves could do without ahead of a crucial Budget in November with economic and political pressure building both within the Labour Party and outside of it.”

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