# UK house sales were 8% higher in November than a year earlier – HMRC figures

By David Fell — 2026-01-09

David Fell, lead analyst at Hamptons, said: “Continued falls in mortgage rates are tempting more buyers back into the market.

“Movers in particular chose to sit tight as rates peaked, but with mortgage pricing dropping back below 3.5 per cent early this year, many would-be sellers are reassessing their options as the monthly cost of a potential new home falls.

“With monthly mortgage payments usually homeowners’ largest single bill, even a small fall in rates can offset worries about wider economic weakness.

“And there is a distinct possibility that mortgage rates may fall further this year if inflation surprises to the downside.

“With energy bills poised to drop in April and rail fares frozen, inflation may return to target faster than many envisage.

“This is likely to open up some room for lenders to offer even cheaper deals.

“If the top of the best buy tables can boast mortgage rates of under three per cent by the end of the year, it would prove to be a big psychological benchmark for many would-be buyers.

“So while we expect a similar number of homes to be sold in both 2025 and 2026, further falls in mortgage rates would materially boost transaction numbers this year.

“But prime markets are still telling a rather different story. Here, the number of new sales being agreed remains well below pre-budget levels.

“A cocktail of falling prices, big stamp duty bills and a degree of unease over the introduction of a ‘mansion tax’ above £2m is all likely to feed into lower completions and disproportionately lower stamp duty receipts for the treasury this year.

“The sale of £2m+ homes accounts for nearly a quarter of all stamp duty revenue.”

Canonical: https://experts.pressassociation.com/expert/105/views/fc8fcce23d175de8